Analytical prediction of extreme land surface temperatures

The increase in land surface temperature (LST) in a warming world affects climatological, hydrological, and ecological processes ranging from ecosystem and biome vulnerability to occurrence and extent of extreme climate events such as heatwaves and wildfires. Unprecedently high LSTs exceeding 80 °C have been recorded in some regions of the world in recent years limiting habitability of these regions in certain conditions. Currently identifying extreme surface temperature hotspots relies largely on remote sensing and satellite observations limiting predictability of the location and the extent of maximum surface temperatures with climate change and projected global warming.  In this research, we focus on inherent land characteristics (e.g., land cover) and atmospheric forcing data (e.g., radiative flux) to identify potential locations of land hotspots globally. We aim at developing an energy constrained analytical model for estimating extreme LSTs to quantify the extent of temperature extremes with projected global warming under different scenarios provided by Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). The study will provide a theoretical basis to understand the spatial extent of land hotspots and shed lights on ecological sustenance and biological adaptability in these often unexplored places.

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