Estuaries such as the Tidal Elbe have been, and continue to be, a lifeline for the hinterland. Settlements, towns, craft and industrial enterprises, trade and ports have sprung up along the estuaries, in many cases ensuring prosperous economic development in these areas. Estuaries serve as transport hubs for people, goods and commodities, both to the wider world and into the hinterland. However, tidal estuaries are also home to valuable biotopes and ecosystems that must be protected and preserved. Furthermore, storm surges penetrate the hinterland via the tidal estuaries and, without adequate protection from dykes, walls, floodplains and retention areas, as well as barrage structures and drainage works, cause enormous damage there. The past has shown this time and again, to our great sorrow. Currently, the level of protection against storm surges along Germany’s estuaries is very high, and in recent years, even during very severe storm surges (e.g. Xaver in December 2013), only comparatively minor damage has occurred. As a consequence of the diverse land uses on the one hand and the requirements of flood protection on the other, estuary systems are today often heavily shaped by human activity as a result of the associated adaptation measures.
Climate change has a wide range of consequences for estuarine systems in Germany, Europe and worldwide. One consequence of the likely accelerated rise in sea level in the future (Fig. 1 and Fig. 2) and of potentially stronger and more frequent storms is that storm surge water levels in the estuaries will rise in future. This will increase the strain on coastal defences and raise the likelihood of flooding. Furthermore, higher water levels will result in greater damage in the flooded areas. Overall, without appropriate adaptation measures, the risk in flood-prone areas will increase.
