Institut für Umwelttechnik und Energiewirtschaft V-9

1) Markets for Agricultural Commodities
What are the major markets and how are markets functioning
Recent trends in world production and consumption.
World trade is growing fast. Logistics. Bottlenecks.
The major countries with surplus production
Growing net import requirements, primarily of China, India and many other countries.
Tariff and non-tariff market barriers. Government interferences.

2) Closer Analysis of Individual Markets
Thomas Mielke will analyze in more detail the global vegetable oil markets, primarily palm oil, soya oil,
rapeseed oil, sunflower oil. Also the raw material (the oilseed) as well as the by-product (oilmeal) will
be included. The major producers and consumers.
Vegetable oils and oilmeals are extracted from the oilseed. The importance of vegetable oils and
animal fats will be highlighted, primarily in the food industry in Europe and worldwide. But in the past
15 years there have also been rapidly rising global requirements of oils & fats for non-food purposes,
primarily as a feedstock for biodiesel but also in the chemical industry.
Importance of oilmeals as an animal feed for the production of livestock and aquaculture
Oilseed area, yields per hectare as well as production of oilseeds. Analysis of the major oilseeds
worldwide. The focus will be on soybeans, rapeseed, sunflowerseed, groundnuts and cottonseed.
Regional differences in productivity. The winners and losers in global agricultural production.

3) Forecasts: Future Global Demand & Production of Vegetable Oils
Big challenges in the years ahead: Lack of arable land for the production of oilseeds, grains and other
crops. Competition with livestock. Lack of water. What are possible solutions? Need for better
education & management, more mechanization, better seed varieties and better inputs to raise yields.
The importance of prices and changes in relative prices to solve market imbalances (shortage
situations as well as surplus situations). How does it work? Time lags.
Rapidly rising population, primarily the number of people considered “middle class” in the years ahead.
Higher disposable income will trigger changing diets in favour of vegetable oils and livestock products.
Urbanization. Today, food consumption per caput is partly still very low in many developing countries,
primarily in Africa, some regions of Asia and in Central America. What changes are to be expected?
The myth and the realities of palm oil in the world of today and tomorrow.
Labour issues curb production growth: Some examples: 1) Shortage of labour in oil palm plantations in
Malaysia. 2) Structural reforms overdue for the agriculture in India, China and other countries to
become more productive and successful, thus improving the standard of living of smallholders.