Testing the wisdom of the crowd - the case of transfermarkt.de

Transfermarkt.de is an online community platform on which users can debate and finally decide on virtual market values of professional soccer players. The platform has received a lot of attention in the media over the last years and is among the 25 most visited websites in Germany. It provides a unique empirical setting to study the factors under which a crowd makes wise or unwise decisions.

This research project examines the accuracy of crowd-generated virtual market values for professional soccer players by comparing these virtual values with actual transfer fees. Further, we test the impact of various factors characterizing the open discussion about virtual market values (e.g. diversity of knowledge used in the discussion, number of experts, quality of user interactions, time per analysis, etc.) on the accuracy of the estimation.

The findings will contribute to our understanding of the conditions under which crowd estimations will be more or less “wise”.

Contact Person
Prof. Dr. Christian Lüthje