|Title: Development of a Probabilistic Methodology for Damage Stability regarding Bottom Damages|
|Written by: Felix-Ingo Kehren, Stefan Krüger|
|in: PRADS, Houston, Texas, USA 2007|
Abstract: Today damage stability calculations are carried out in three major steps: Firstly a damage generation, secondly a system response and thirdly a validation of the system response are carried out and therefore the generation of damages is highly time consuming. This paper suggests a methodology to automate the damage generation by using Monte Carlo simulations. This methodology is exemplified with bottom damages and based on the probability density functions given in the IMO/ MARPOL- Oil-outflow regulations. The paper shows on one hand the statistical inconsistency of these functions, but will on the other hand demonstrate that damage generation with the Monte Carlo simulations is applicable with very short calculation times. That opens the opportunity to compare different subdivision arrangements even in an early design stage of a vessel quickly. Furthermore this methodology can be extended to side damages, because the automization of the damage generating is in focus.